💰 Sell in May and Go Away

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Ever wonder why big organizations make so much money from investing, while many of us, as individual investors, end up losing? It's because their mindset is different. Only the top 5% of traders approach the market with the right mindset.

Here’s what we got for you today:

• ℹ️ Crypto Sources From The Crypto Fire ℹ️

• 💰 "Sell in May and Go Away"

• 💡 Investment Thinking of the Top 5%

  • 7️⃣ Diversification – A Safer Way

• ⭐ 5 Things You Shouldn’t Miss

• 🤡 Meme Of The Day

ℹ️ Crypto Sources From The Crypto Fire ℹ️

💰 "Sell in May and Go Away"

Does it Work for Stocks and Bitcoin?

We’ve all heard the saying "Sell in May and Go Away", right? It’s been around forever, but does it actually hold any weight in today's market? Let's break it down and see if it works for both stocks and Bitcoin.

1️⃣ Origin of "Sell in May"

The phrase dates back to the 19th century in the British stock market. Traders would take off for summer vacations, and with fewer people trading, the market would get sluggish. The full saying is actually: "Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger's Day", referring to returning in the fall.

Why does this strategy exist? In summer, trading volumes drop, market sentiment gets defensive, and big investors take a break. That means fewer trades, lower market activity, and more cautious vibes all around.

2️⃣ Does "Sell in May" Actually Work for US Stocks?

Looking at S&P 500 data since 1950:

• May to October: Average gain of just 2%.

• November to April: Average gain of 7%.

In fact, a study from the University of Miami found that this strategy outperformed 60% of the time in markets like the US, UK, and Europe.

Why does it work? During the summer, fewer people are active in the markets. Funds and investors take a break, and the market becomes more defensive, with money moving into bonds or more stable investments.

But hey, it's not always a given. Sometimes, the market rallies in the summer – especially if the Fed cuts interest rates or there’s a new stimulus package.

3️⃣ Is "Sell in May" Effective for Bitcoin?

Let’s talk Bitcoin. Based on performance from 2013 to 2025, May shows a mixed bag.

🚀 Bitcoin Price Gains in May:

• 2024: +11.07%

• 2020: +9.51%

• 2019: +52.38%

• 2017: +52.71% (thanks to the ICO hype)

• 2016: +18.78%

• 2015: +3.17%

• 2014: +39.46%

⛔ Bitcoin Price Drops in May:

• 2023: -6.98%

• 2022: -15.6%

• 2021: -35.31% (due to China's crypto ban)

• 2018: -20.06%

• 2013: -8.65%

Average May performance? -7.94% – not great, but not the worst either. September typically sees even worse performance with an average drop of -3.77%.

4️⃣ Which Month Did Bitcoin Fall the Most?

So if you’re buying into the "Sell in May" theory, here’s what the monthly performance from May to October looks like:

• May: -7.94%

• June: -0.35%

• July: +7.35%

• August: +1.75%

• September: -3.77%

• October: +21.89%

💥 October is the clear winner with a +21.89% increase. But May and September are typically the weakest months.

That said, summer is full of volatility. Take 2017, for example – it was an exception where Bitcoin surged in the summer thanks to the ICO boom. But 2021? A nightmare – with -35.31% in May and a -73.29% drop in September.

5️⃣ So, When Should You Sell Bitcoin?

Based on the data, Bitcoin's performance from May to October averaged +3.155%, which is much lower than the +8.83% from November to April. So, yeah, it kind of favors the “Sell in May” strategy, especially since summer months tend to underperform.

But here's the catch: even though the summer isn’t typically great, October often makes up for it with a huge rally. The market is also heavily affected by external factors, like China’s crypto ban in 2021, or the ICO frenzy in 2017.

Trader Take: While "Sell in May" might be a solid strategy for the crypto market, it's not foolproof. It’s best to evaluate market cycles rather than relying solely on the month-to-month performance.

Bitcoin usually peaks within 1-1.5 years after Halving. That means this season Bitcoin could peak between April 2025 and October 2025.

Or when miners have made 2-3 times the profit compared to the cost of mining Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin usually peaks. It's an interesting pattern to watch when trying to gauge price cycles in the crypto market.

💡 Investment Thinking of the Top 5%

Ever wonder why big organizations make money from investing while many of us, as individual investors, end up losing? Here's the thing: it's not about having massive capital or just getting lucky. It's about mindset.

To be successful in investing, especially in volatile markets like crypto, your thinking needs to shift. Here are the key points to remember:

1️⃣ Long-term Thinking: The Core of Every Successful Strategy

If you’ve ever listened to investing legends like Warren Buffett or Benjamin Graham, you know one thing is clear – long-term thinking is crucial. It’s not about making quick profits or reacting to every market shift. You need patience and a long-term outlook.

Take Bitcoin for example. A perfect case is MicroStrategy, which kept investing through market peaks by using Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA). They didn’t care about short-term price drops because they know in 5–10 years, Bitcoin will be worth far more.

Let’s do a quick calculation for fun:

• Monthly investment: $100 for 10 years

• Total investment: $12,000

• Bitcoin price at the end of 2024: ~$60,000

• BTC accumulated: 0.006847 BTC/month × 120 months = 0.82164 BTC

• Portfolio value: 0.82164 BTC × $60,000 = $49,298

• Profit: $49,298 – $12,000 = $37,298

This is the power of long-term thinking. Even small, consistent investments can grow massively.

2️⃣ Understanding Intrinsic Value

Don’t just jump on trends because they’re trending. If you don't understand why you're investing, it’s easy to get burned.

Look at El Salvador, for example.

El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, and as of November 2024

• Holdings of 6,160.18 BTC

• Valued at 579.17 million dollars

→ They understood Bitcoin's scarcity and global, decentralized nature—values that made their decision solid.

Average Mining Costs = A Proxy for "Intrinsic Value"

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin gain value from factors like scarcity, utility, and security, not physical backing. While fiat currencies have no intrinsic value and rely on trust, Bitcoin's value is rooted in decentralization and scarcity.

Interestingly, Bitcoin's price has often mimicked its mining costs, although sometimes it gets ahead or lags. For example:

• In late 2021, the average cost to mine a Bitcoin was around $20,000, while its price surged to $69,000.

• Now, the average cost to mine a Bitcoin is around $90,170.

This pattern suggests that mining costs can act as a proxy for Bitcoin's intrinsic value.

And then there's BlackRock, which holds 586,164 BTC, a $48 billion investment. They’re betting on Bitcoin’s intrinsic value too.

3️⃣ Risk Management: Protecting What You Have

In investing, it’s not just about being right; it’s about how much you can make when you’re right and how much you can lose when you're wrong. Warren Buffett’s famous rules:

• Rule #1: Don’t lose money.

• Rule #2: Don’t forget Rule #1.

For example, an investor once joined a funding fund, risking 0.2% of their capital per trade. Even though they lost, their risk management kept them in control, limiting the loss to 10% of their savings (instead of $500). This approach was crucial.

Tip: It's important to build a personal risk management strategy based on individual goals, personality, and the level of risk they are willing to take.

4️⃣ Think Against the Crowd (Think Upstream)

Crypto markets are highly psychological. Only about 0.28% of professional traders are consistently profitable. It’s a tough world, but if you understand crowd psychology, you can win big.

• When the market is full of fear (Fear <15 on the Fear & Greed index), that’s when you should buy.

• When people are too greedy (Greed >85), it’s time to sell.

Warren Buffett put it perfectly: “Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.”

Market makers and institutional investors know this. They manipulate prices by understanding the crowd's psychology, making moves that give them an edge.

5️⃣ Respect What You Do

Many treat investing like a game - stocks, crypto, it’s all the same. But here’s the truth: If you treat it like a game, you’ll probably lose. Professional investors treat it as a job - a job that involves research, analysis, and solid decision-making.

For example, using technical analysis, reading whitepapers, and setting realistic expectations all come into play. If you respect the process and the decisions you make, you’ll be prepared for the long road ahead.

6️⃣ Focus: Bet Big on What You Know Best

When investing, don’t spread your capital randomly.

• Choose 3–5 of your best assets and focus on them.

• Big opportunities are rare. When you find one, bet big.

Warren Buffett famously invested $35 billion in Apple in 2016, and by 2024, it turned into $100 billion. His five largest investments make up 75% of his portfolio.

Nick Sleep invested in only 3 stocks for over 10 years, seeing a 921% return.

→ The common lesson: bet big on what you know well.

But concentration has risks. Bill Ackman lost nearly $4 billion with his bet on Valeant Pharmaceuticals, showing how risky it can be.

7️⃣ Diversification – A Safer Way

Diversification is about spreading capital to reduce risk. Instead of betting on one restaurant, invest in 10.

Peter Lynch managed 1,000 stocks and achieved 29% growth per year for 13 years.

Ray Dalio believes “Diversification is the only free lunch”. Bridgewater spreads investments across stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies for long-term survival.

However, over-diversification can harm returns. Peter Lynch warns about “diworsification”, where buying too many mediocre assets dilutes performance.

Trader Take

Investing isn't about luck. It's about mindset, long-term planning, managing risk, and understanding the cycles. The earlier you adopt these principles, the better off you’ll be.

Start thinking like the top 5%. Don't just follow the crowd—take a step back, analyze, and then make your move.

⭐ 5 Things You Shouldn’t Miss

💳 Stripe is testing a new USD stablecoin payment service for businesses outside the US, UK, and EU. It’s built on Bridge, the remittance platform Stripe bought for $1.1 billion late last year.

🔥 Ethereum is testing a 4x increase to the network’s gas limit — aiming to jump from around 36M today to a crazy 150M gas by the time the next big upgrade, Fusaka, rolls out in late 2025.

👱🏼‍♂️ Despite raising $550 million in token sales, Trump’s WLFI portfolio is currently losing an average of $4.28 million, with many of its assets underperforming such as $MOVE.X ( ▼ 0.38% ) , $MNT.X ( ▲ 0.95% ) , $ONDO.X ( ▲ 2.24% ) , and $ETH.X ( ▲ 2.93% ) . To make matters worse, WLFI tokens still aren’t listed on exchanges, meaning there’s no liquidity or market validation for investors. Looks like WLFI’s crypto bets aren’t paying off just yet.

📈 Monero ($XMR.X ( ▲ 18.8% ) ) saw a 40% surge in 24 hours, with trading volumes spiking from $50 million to $220 million, despite no clear catalyst for the increase.

🎮 Gala Games has partnered with the White House for a blockchain-based Easter Egg Hunt, boosting $GALA.X ( ▼ 2.1% )  token by 18% and bringing renewed interest to GameFi. Over 300,000 games were played, with 100,000 new accounts created. This marks a big step in introducing blockchain gaming to mainstream audiences.

🤡 Meme Of The Day

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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.