🎅🏻 No Santa Rally?

As 2024 draws to a close, traders are eagerly anticipating the usual year-end bullish surge. But will this year follow the trend, or will things take a different turn?

Here’s what we got for you today:

• 📉 Crypto Chaos or Opportunity? Market Braces for …

• 🎅🏻 No Santa Rally?

• ⭐ Top Highlight in Crypto Today

• 🤡 Meme Of The Day

📉 Crypto Chaos or Opportunity? Market Braces for Trump’s Inauguration Shockwave

Big political events often cause strong reactions in the market, especially when there’s uncertainty. President Trump’s inauguration was one of those moments. Let’s look at how it affected the crypto market and what it means for investors.

Short-Term Changes vs. Long-Term Growth

• Market Swings Are Normal: In the past, Bitcoin’s price has gone up very quickly, like when it jumped from $60,000 to over $100,000 in a year. But no market goes up forever without taking a break. The day of Trump’s inauguration can be seen as a reminder that “corrections” are normal and even healthy for long-term growth.

• High Hopes vs. Reality: Many believed Trump’s policies might boost the economy and even help Bitcoin. Some even thought he might sign an order to make Bitcoin a reserve asset for the U.S.

• The Reality: While this sounds exciting, big events often lead to high expectations, but reality usually moves slower than people hope. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and manager of the investment fund Maelstrom predicts a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrencies around Trump’s inauguration, driven by disillusionment as investors realize policy implementation will take much longer than anticipated. Executive orders can be easily reversed by the next president. This makes laws passed by Congress more important for Bitcoin’s future.

→ This mismatch between expectations and reality could lead to what he calls a "harrowing dump" in crypto markets in early 2025.

The Importance of Bitcoin Laws

• Stronger Rules: Senator Cynthia Lummis has suggested a law to make Bitcoin a U.S. reserve asset. Unlike temporary orders, laws are harder to undo and give more long-term certainty.

• Challenges Ahead: Getting this kind of law passed takes time and teamwork. Even though it’s a tough process, success could change Bitcoin’s role in the financial world.

What Investors Should Know

• Short-Term Worries: Events like Trump’s inauguration can make markets nervous. Some investors fear big changes right away.

• Long-Term Confidence: Despite ups and downs, we have many reasons to strongly believe the market will enter an explosive phase in 2025! More governments, businesses, and institutions are adopting Bitcoin, and new technology like the Lightning Network is making it better. ETH usually performs well in the first half of the year, especially in the years after Halving (2017, 2021). History also shows that after Christmas in Halving years, altcoins tend to do well.

The Big Picture

Trump’s presidency showed how political events can shake up the market, but it also proved that patience pays off. Crypto is a long-term game. Even with challenges, the future looks bright as adoption grows and support builds for stronger rules.

Stay focused on the bigger picture and keep learning. The market will have bumps, but the journey is worth it!

🎅🏻 No Santa Rally?

The Santa Rally - an end-of-year surge in stock prices from late December to early January - typically sees increased buying from individual investors fueled by holiday spending and year-end bonuses. Low trading volumes further amplify these gains.

Yet, as 2024 comes to an end, Bitcoin (BTC) is bucking the trend and underperforming in what should be a bullish season.

Why the slump? Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have curbed investor enthusiasm, dampening the excitement that followed Donald Trump’s presidential victory and triggering a decline in Bitcoin's value.

A Repeat of 2021? In early 2021, Bitcoin soared to $40,000 by January 8 but plummeted 25% to $30,000 by late January. This mirrors today’s 15% drawdown, yet back then, it was part of a longer bull run from $10,000 in late 2020 to a record $70,000 in November 2021. Key metrics still hold promise: the realized price—the average on-chain cost of all tokens—continues to rise, suggesting major investors are buying at higher levels.

Bitcoin’s current price remains above the Short-Term Holder's Realized Price (STH RP), the average on-chain price for coins moved within the past 155 days. Historically, in bull markets, BTC uses this level as support. Today, with an STH RP at $84,000, the bull market could be intact as long as BTC stays above this crucial level.

⭐ Top Highlight in Crypto Today

• 📈 BlackRock's BUIDL Fund as Collateral? Securitize proposes adding BlackRock's $549M BUIDL fund as collateral for Frax USD stablecoin, offering yield, liquidity, and reduced risk - pending community vote.

• 💴 Japanese publicly traded company Metaplanet has acquired 619.70 bitcoins for 9.5 billion yen (~$60.69M), raising its total bitcoin holdings to 1,761.98 BTC.

• 📄 Inspired by Michael Saylor's "Digital Asset Framework," Trump aims to establish a Bitcoin reserve similar to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Saylor estimates this could generate $16–$81 trillion, neutralize the $36 trillion national debt, and position the U.S. as a leader in the digital economy.

• 📢 Trump Names Bo Hines to Lead Crypto Council! Former athlete and GOP nominee joins David Sacks to drive innovation and growth in digital assets under Trump’s administration.

• 🚀 SEC’s Hester Peirce is open to in-kind redemptions for spot Bitcoin ETFs. This move could let investors withdraw Bitcoin into personal custody, aligning with Bitcoin’s ethos of financial freedom.

🤡 Meme Of The Day

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The Crypto Fire Team