✔️ Crypto Success Requires One Thing

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The market’s buzzing with fear right now, huh? But listen up: even if it doesn’t seem like it, as of today, the good vibes are still beating out the bad! Not buying what we’re saying? Scroll down for more!

Here’s what we got for you today:

• 🚀 12 Indicators and a Bonus to Determine If Bitco …

• 🔝 YOU CANNOT SUCCEED

• ⭐ Top Highlight in Crypto Today

• 🤡 Meme Of The Day

🚀 12 Indicators and a Bonus to Determine If Bitcoin Has Peaked

$ETH.X ( ▼ 0.59% ) just dropped below $2K - even with some good vibes coming from the US about strategic reserves.

I bet a bunch of you are scratching your heads, wondering if the market’s peaked or if this is just a little breather before it keeps climbing.

Looking back, there’ve been some pretty handy signs that have tipped us off about when Bitcoin—and the whole crypto scene—might be reaching its high point.

1️⃣ Markets is not looking great

Since January 20th, $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.76% ) (you know, the big boss of crypto that usually drives the gains) has dropped about 28%. Yikes!

2️⃣ Fear & Greed Index. Vibes = even worse

There’s this thing called the Fear & Greed Index—it’s like a mood ring for the crypto market, running from 0 (super scared) to 100 (super greedy). Low numbers mean people are freaked out and it might be a good time to buy, while high ones mean everyone’s greedy and a dip could be coming. Traders love it for checking the vibe.

Right now, the Fear & Greed Index hit a crazy low of 10 recently—the most fear we’ve seen since the Terra Luna crash messed everything up in 2022. It’s bounced back to 30.

3️⃣ Altcoin Season Index

This index tracks how the top 100 altcoins stack up against Bitcoin over 90 days to see if they’re stealing the spotlight. If 75% of them beat $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.76% ) , boom, it’s Altseason time!

Back in 2017 and 2021, Alt season hit right before the market peaked. But right now? The index is at its lowest since Q3/2024—no altcoin party in sight. History says Altseason is the “hype peak”—money flows from Bitcoin to altcoins, small coins shoot up, then the whole market crashes.

Since the index is still low, it might mean investors aren’t feeling it—or there just aren’t any hot altcoin projects leading the charge. Like, $ETH.X ( ▼ 0.59% ) dropping below $2K even with good news? That’s a sign altcoins are struggling.

If Altseason hasn’t started, maybe the market’s got more room to grow. Watch for altcoins to heat up when Bitcoin slows down.

4️⃣ BTC.D - Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance is basically how much of the crypto market’s total value is tied up in $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.76% ) . It’s a big clue about where the money’s going. When it drops hard, cash flows to altcoins, and that’s usually a sign the cycle’s peaking.

In past market tops, Dominance took a dive. But right now? It’s still climbing, no sign of slowing down. That means people are sticking with Bitcoin like it’s the safe bet in this wild market.

Back in 2021, Dominance fell from 70% to under 40% before Altseason went nuts and the market hit its high. Since it’s still strong now, this cycle’s probably not done yet.

5️⃣ Bitcoin AHR999 Index

The AHR999 Index is this cool tool that checks Bitcoin’s value based on past patterns—basically, is it too pricey or a steal?

• Above 4? That’s usually the cycle top.

• Below 0.45? Great time to stack some $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.76% ) .

Right now, it’s hanging out under 4—not screaming “peak” at us. In 2017 and 2021, it shot past 4 right before the market flipped. This time, it’s still chill in the “safe” zone, meaning no FOMO frenzy yet. Maybe regular folks aren’t jumping in big, which tends to happen before the top.

Want a dip to buy? Watch for AHR999 to drop below 0.45—that could be your sweet spot soon.

6️⃣ Bitcoin Bubble Index

This one’s all about spotting a Bitcoin “bubble” by looking at price, Google searches, and how hyped people are. When it’s over 70, we’re in bubble territory and a crash could be coming.

Right now, it’s nowhere near its old highs—not bubbly yet. In 2017, it went past 70 when “Bitcoin” was all over Google and the news wouldn’t shut up about it. Today, people are kinda meh—maybe because crypto’s grown up a bit and doesn’t need newbie FOMO to spike. That’s another hint the peak’s not close.

Keep an eye on Google Trends and X chatter—if “Bitcoin” blows up, we might be heading for a bubble.

7️⃣ Bitcoin RSI

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is this handy little thing that tracks how strong Bitcoin’s price momentum is—basically, it tells you if it’s overbought or oversold.

• RSI > 90: Bitcoin is often overbought, prone to reversing downwards.

• RSI < 30: Bitcoin is oversold, often rebounding.

Right now, Bitcoin’s RSI is sitting around 62 - not quite at that danger zone yet.

→ Looking back, in past cycles, RSI would shoot past 90 a few weeks before Bitcoin hit its peak—like in November 2021, it hit 93 when BTC touched $69K.

→ An RSI of 62 today says the market’s warm but not in full-on panic mode yet. Could be because of big-picture stuff like Fed interest rates or people being cautious after ETH’s recent ups and downs.

Keep an eye on RSI over the next few weeks—if it jumps above 90 with big volume, it might be a heads-up for a short-term top.

8️⃣ Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index

Then there’s the Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index, or CBBI—it mixes a bunch of signals to figure out where Bitcoin’s at in its cycle.

When CBBI goes over 90, that’s usually when Bitcoin peaks.

Right now, it’s at 70 and trending down a bit, so we’re probably mid-cycle. That slight drop might be tied to short-term price swings—like $ETH.X ( ▼ 0.59% ) dipping below $2K—but it’s not enough to say the cycle’s done. In the past, CBBI would hang above 90 for weeks before a crash.

At 70, it feels like Bitcoin’s still got some gas in the tank. If CBBI bounces back and breaks 90 soon, that’s your cue to watch out.

9️⃣ Golden Ratio Multiplier

It uses Bitcoin’s 350-day moving average (350DMA) to spot long-term resistance.

In the last cycle, $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.76% ) topped out when it hit the 350DMA x3 level. Right now, that level’s around $150K, and Bitcoin’s nowhere near it yet. That $150K isn’t just a number—it’s a big mental hurdle too.

Back in 2021, $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.76% ) peaked at 350DMA x3 (which was $69K then) before tanking. If history repeats, Bitcoin could rally hard before hitting that $150K wall. When $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.76% ) gets close to $150K, brace for a turnaround—but until then, there’s room for a solid run.

1️⃣0️⃣ Onchain fundamentals

Now, onchain fundamentals are looking solid—consistent use means strength, and that’s a good sign!

Oh, and US layoffs just spiked hard—fourth biggest jump in 25 years. That’s the kind of thing you only see in recessions usually.

1️⃣1️⃣ Layoffs are increasing

Feeling jittery? Don’t worry, here’s the good news - those layoffs might be because of DOGE. In 2024, ~50% of new jobs were federal gigs, and with Elon Musk slashing government jobs left and right (think hundreds of thousands), that spike’s probably more about DOGE cuts than a crumbling economy.

1️⃣2️⃣ Open Interest (OI)

Open Interest (OI) measures the total number of active crypto futures or options contracts. High OI means the market’s overheated and might pull back, while low OI says it’s cooled off and could bounce. Bitcoin’s OI just took a nice dip, hinting we might’ve hit (or be super close to) the bottom.

1️⃣3️⃣ Inflation might be easing up soon

February’s Consumer Price Index in February droped - it’s a lagging look at inflation rates. That, plus the next two reports (March and April), will be huge. If inflation comes in lower than expected, the Fed could cut rates and pump some fresh cash into the system—aka liquidity. Truflation’s real-time tracker says those trailing rates are about to drop off a cliff in the coming months, which could be a big win for crypto!

Bonus: Rhyming

You know how people say history doesn’t repeat, but it kinda rhymes? Well, Bitcoin’s price action in 2024 and 2025 is starting to sound like a familiar tune—and if it keeps playing out, we might be in for an awesome year!

• We’ve already seen that 20-30% dip in January and February—check that off the list!

• Next up, maybe a climb to all-time highs in March? We’ll see!

• And then, could we hit the year’s big peak in Q4? Fingers crossed!

🔝 YOU CANNOT SUCCEED

If you haven't gone through a full 4-year cycle of the Crypto market

Crypto’s no walk in the park, and here’s why you’ve gotta stick it out for the long haul:

1️⃣ No Shortcuts, Sorry!

Crypto isn’t just about reading up - it’s a wild ride of learning, messing up, and growing. There’s no “Crypto 101” class to spoon-feed you the ropes either. You’re on your own to figure it out!

2️⃣ The Real Deal: Trading Mind Games

You can study charts and strategies all day, but the mental stuff? That hits different. You’ve got to feel it:

• The FOMO when prices blast off.

• The gut punch when the market tanks and you’re wrong.

• The ups and downs of wins and losses.

• Or even getting totally wiped out.

That’s where the real lessons kick in.

3️⃣ The 4-Year Crypto Rollercoaster

This market’s nuts, but for 15 years, it’s stuck to a pretty steady cycle—timing might shift, but the pattern holds.

❌ Bad news hits, people panic and bail.

✅ Good vibes sneak in, setting up the next big thing.

Once you’ve lived through a full cycle, you chill out, get the game, and handle your head (and your cash) way better.

If you haven’t made it through a cycle yet and took a hit—don’t sweat it. Our job is to hang in there, keep our funds alive, and soak up the experience. Profits? They’ll come when you’re ready. So don’t curse crypto and bounce after your first loss—there’s no get-rich-quick button here!

⭐ Top Highlight in Crypto Today

✅ Telegram’s CEO, Pavel Durov, just got the green light from a court to temporarily leave France for Dubai. The TON Foundation is thrilled, and the $TON.X ( ▲ 0.78% ) price? It’s jumping—up 20%!

⛔ How much money has the rich lost since Trump Filtered function? Elon Musk lose $148B (Decline in net worth since Jan. 17)

✨ That big-shot $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.76% ) whale is back at it again! They just dropped a massive $370 million short with a crazy 40x leverage. Their liquidation point? Around $85,500. Wild, right?

But here’s the twist—some other whales teamed up and spiked $BTC.X ( ▼ 0.76% ) by $1,500 in just 5 minutes, trying to wipe this guy out. Sneaky move! Didn’t work, though. The whale wasn’t fazed and tossed in another $5 million like it’s pocket change, pushing their liquidation up to $86,600.

And they’re not stopping there! Now they’re shorting $40.7 million in $ETH.X ( ▼ 0.59% ) with 25x leverage, and their liquidation’s sitting at $2,400.

This whale’s playing hardball—wonder how it’ll all shake out!

🏛️ The White House just let us know that David Sacks cashed out $200 million in crypto stuff before stepping in as President Trump’s crypto adviser—gotta keep those conflicts of interest at bay, right?

Chances are, folks like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick did the same thing, unloading their crypto before joining Team Trump. And here’s the wild part—right after Trump took office, the crypto market took a nosedive. Talk about timing

🤡 Meme Of The Day

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Cheers,
The Crypto Fire Team

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Traders should conduct thorough research, understand the risks, and carefully evaluate their decisions before investing in cryptocurrency.